9.24.2008

All Along the Watchtower

So, Monday was the first day of autumn. Which means that Sunday was the last day of summer. I’m sure that depresses a lot of people, but not me. Nope. Not me. Wanna know why? I am part owner of two mortgage companies, an insurance company, oh yeah, and half of the rest of the U.S. economy. I wonder when my dividend cheque will arrive?

In case you missed it, the government took over the world’s largest insurance company last week. Then they apparently decided that owning an insurance company is totally useless without some crap to insure, so they asked Congress for 700 billion dollars with which to purchase the bad debt of any financial institution willing to pawn their garbage off on the federal treasury. If one chooses to include the five trillion dollar mortgage liability the government assumed in taking over Fanny Mae and Freddy Mac two weeks ago, Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson has more than doubled the size of the national debt in only fifteen days. And it’s not over yet. No one knows exactly what these “toxic assets” the government intends to buy are worth. So, it’s quite possible that 700 billion just won’t cover it.

How did we get to this point? Well, that’s a long story, and my head hurts from the constant blathering I’ve been hearing all day long. But the Cliff notes version goes as follows: Some homeowners borrowed some money they probably should never have been allowed to borrow. Not content to rake in payments from people who couldn’t really afford them, banks packaged up these loans into securities and sold them multiple times to other financial institutions. The institutions then turned around and borrowed 30 times more money than they held in those mortgage assets, and lent that money to other people. When home prices started to fall, people decided to cash out their investments. But because the banks had borrowed exponentially more than the capital they had on hand, they couldn’t afford to cover their losses. Investors got wind that something was wrong and began withdrawing more of their money. Bank borrowed more money to cover increasing losses, and the rest is recent history.

But it didn’t have to end this way. Some – if not most of this – could have been prevented if only someone – preferably an adult – had been minding the store. But the geniuses on Wall Street playing roulette with everyone else’s money insisted they could host the party without a chaperone, and the chaperones, the United States government, allowed them to do just that, with horrendous results.

It should be obvious to everyone at this point that the unregulated free market is an unmitigated disaster. If you allow the market to do whatever it pleases, with boundless profit the only motive, the market will cannibalize itself, and then turn to the very public it violated for rescue when times go bad. Unfortunately, we’ve past the point where we can simply say to hell with them and let the entire system fail. Good people need work, good people need credit and good people need to know that at the end of the day their money is going to be worth the paper it’s printed on. The government has to rescue the system, and make up for its complete lack of oversight. Some undeserving financial institutions will continue to operate on the backs of the American taxpayer. But the penalty for destroying the public trust should and must be steep. There has to be some substantial disincentive for Wall Street to repeat this performance.

Treasury Secretary Paulson has come up with a plan to stop the bleeding on Wall Street he calls the Troubled Asset Relief Program – or TARP. That’s right, his solution to this crisis is to throw a tarp over it. Nice. I hope it work better than it sounds.

The stock market chaos seems to have returned the presidential polls to where they were before the election. Recent surveys now show Obama ahead of McCain by 4-5 points – with Obama crossing the 50% threshold in one CNN study. What can we learn from this? When this election is about lipstick, McCain leads. When it’s about issues, Obama leads.

In a related story, the Associated Press release a poll/study over the weekend detailing the role race might play in November. According to the AP, a significant portion of white Democrats hold negative opinions of blacks – enough to cause them to cast their vote against their own candidate. I’m stunned. I can’t express how surprised I am by this mind-blowing revelation. Right. I could have saved them six weeks of work and millions of dollars if they had only asked. Their numbers indicate that if racist white Democrats where to suddenly convert to non-racist white Democrats, Obama’s support among Democrats would increase between six and nine percentage points. It’s a sad commentary on America that there are so many people in this country willing to vote against their own self-interest just to avoid voting for the black guy.

Chevrolet released production images of its all-electric Volt last week after images of the car were leaked on the Internet. Unfortunately, the production car looks nothing like the concept General Motors has been masquerading as the Volt for the past two years. The production Volt is an angular four-door Dodge Stratus, instead of the two-door sport coupe advertised. According to people who keep track of such things, most comments to the company have been negative, including people who want to be taken off the waiting list for the car. Is there any doubt as to why the U.S. automakers are begging congress for money to stay afloat?

My NFL thoughts for Week 3:

The only difference between the 1995 Dallas Cowboys and the 2008 Dallas Cowboys is the cocaine.

The St. Louis Rams could improve the team by replacing their entire offensive line with actual rams. Sheep might actually block somebody.

Dolphins running back Ronnie Brown was responsible for all five Miami touchdowns in their win over New England Sunday. The once mighty Patriot defense was done in by trick plays from a high-school playbook. I thought Belichick was supposed to be a genius.

Seahawks quarterback Matt Hasselbeck made a statement Sunday afternoon. After Julius Jones escaped a pile of Rams defender and headed down the sideline toward the end zone, Hasselbeck ran ahead and launched himself head-first into the last two Rams defenders, knocking them flat on their backs and allowing Jones to waltz in for the score. Matt Hasselbeck is not just a quarterback; he’s a football player.

The states of Ohio and Missouri are a combined 0-12 so far this season. The ’76 Buccaneers might get to finally uncork the champagne this season.

My Superbowl picks for Week 3: Dallas Cowboys vs. Denver Broncos

In lighter news, the Large Hadron Collider will be shut down for several weeks due to an electrical failure and coolant leak that cause the machine to malfunction. Guess we’ll have to wait until next month for the black hole to destroy the earth.

Transformers vixen Megan Fox admitted to GQ Magazine that four years ago she fell in love with a female stripper. News that I’m sure makes a lot of people, very happy. According to Fox, “Nikita” performed beautiful slow dances to Aerosmith music (really?) and Fox would bring her gifts to inspire her to quit dancing. At this point the story gets a little strange. Fox claims she’s not a lesbian, but has the ability to be attracted to both sexes, and could see herself in a relationship with a girl. In fact, “Olivia Wilde is so sexy,” said Fox, “she makes me want to strangle a mountain ox with my bare hands.” Huh? What on earth does that even mean? And where do I get my ticket?

And finally, sorry ladies, but it’s official. Clay Aiken is gay. It’s true. People Magazine said so. Word is they will also announce that the earth is indeed round, and the sun will, most likely, come up tomorrow.

6 comments:

Kristina said...

I've always wanted to be a shareholder. I really did think I'd get a say in purchasing said stock first, though.

I like your Cliff Notes version of the current financial debacle. Very helpful.

I love the TARP. BRILLIANT idea. Very Tom Ridge-esque.

I hear Lindsay Lohan is officially on the girl-train too. I hope she's a full-on lesbian, because the alliteration is awesome. Also, because she seems kind of normal and happy as a lesbian, and we haven't been subjected to her coochie in AGES. That seems like progress to me.

Chris Barroso said...

Big Howdy Mark. I just got a mass email from Kristina about this cool blog of yours. Hey, I give you credit for taking the time to do it.

Anyway, I must say my two (or more) cents on the subject.

Your Cliff notes version of the financial crisis is very accurate. However, this is not the first time we have seen this. It happened in Thailand about 10 years ago; the Thai lost their middle class totally. This disaster also hit Mexico, Brazil, and Russia. Remember, all economies are connected now. This leads to a very important revelation; someone should have known better.

And they did. Thats the scary part. After Freddie Mac and Fanny Mae got caught with their pants down in an accounting scandal; senator Charles Hagel attempted to pass a law for regulation of the housing market. This regulation was called s.109 (you can look it up). It ended up going nowhere as nobody in the senate was really interested in loosing their campaign contributions from Fannie/Freddie (look up who got what from Fannie/Freddie). The truth is had this regulation passed; the sub-prime mortgage crisis would have never happened because the industry would have been forced to diversify and spread the risk.

I guess what I am trying to say is that you can't point at George Bush and say he is at fault. The fault starts with Bill Clinton and continues with congress, W., the "new" democratic congress, and each borrower who got in other their head.

Oh, and later we can talk about Obama's economic policies.

Anonymous said...

hey chris! nice to hear from you. i don't usually respond to blog comments - mostly because i don't get many that aren't from my wife, but i'm happy to make an exception.

you are correct that similar financial disasters have occurred before, in all of those places you've mentioned. it also happened in Japan in the last '90s and early '00s with disasterous results for their economy. most importantly, a smaller scale version happened here during the late '90s with the busting of the dot com bubble. however, that was mostly confined to investors and the northern california real estate market, so the average person paid little attention.

there are three major contributing factors to this mess, and i would argue that one is substantially more significant than the other two.

first, people took out mortgages they could not afford to repay. there's no excuse for that. people should have been more careful in selecting mortgages and understanding exactly what they were getting into, evaluating their ability to pay, and adjusting their borrowing accordingly. but lending institutions didn't really care if people could afford to pay because they never intended to hold those mortgages on their books anyway.

second, financial institutions should never have been allowed to become "too big to fail". i agree that bush alone cannot be blamed for this. it started under reagan with deregulation of the banking industry, expanded under clinton with the destruction of the glass-steagall act, which up until that point had prevented traditional bank holding companies from owning other financial entities like investment banks.

third - and most importantly - banks and investment firms should never have been allowed to leverage capital at rates of 30-1. i think this is where we disagree as to where the fault lies. in my view, this is a direct result of the "complete deregulation and elimination of oversight at any cost" mentality of conservatives in the bush administration - an in particular, mccain's chief financial advisor phil gramm.
it has been estimated that there are approx. 51 million mortgages in the united states, of which about 3% (1.5 million) are in default. assume for argument's sake that each of those bad mortgages are worth $250,000, which, considering the markets hardest hit by foreclosure are california, nevada, florida and arizona where real estate prices were ridiculously high to begin with. using those parameters, bank would hold $375 billion in bad debt. it's a lot of money, but spread amongst all the institutions, not insurmountable. the problem is they used that dubious capital to leverage 20 or 30 times that amount of money. so now, that $375 billion debt becomes between 7.5 and 11.25 trillion dollars. and that is why we are where we are today.

i am not one of those people who think bush is the devil in a suit and tie. i just think it's apparent that under his administration, accountability of any kind has gone out the window. Bush's economic philosophy states that if you allow people to do whatever the hell they want to do as often as possible, everything will be just fine. that's obviously not the case.

Chris Barroso said...

Now that I think about it; commenting on a comment that is commenting on your commentary is very...existential. No wonder you never comment a comment. Okay, now I am confused.

But you know, Mark. I actually agree with you. Hey, that was kind of freeing. I agree with a liberal. My parents would be so ashamed. I guess I am now responsible for all the babies being aborted also.

Don’t get me wrong, I am still a conservative financially (socially I am very liberal). But I have come to see that pure conservatism is solely based upon greed. If that happens you get the Thai crash I mention in my last post. You cannot run a society based upon only greed. However, you can’t take the power of the markets and market forces out the equation either. If that were to happen you would get the sad economy of France. There has to be a middle ground to walk. Thomas Friedman wrote a book called, “the world is flat” that introduced the concept of compassionate conservatism. The essence is we allow the markets to function within bounds; therefore driving creativity and competition. We also change public assistance to motivate the citizens; not keep them down. If you get steamrolled by the market it is the job of the government to lift you back up; not to support you for the rest of your life. Another big part of this theory is free trade, education, more immigration, and fleet-footed government.

It all breaks down into what Bill Clinton was trying to do with the economy; although putting a cigar into a fat chick is not mentioned. I thought Mccain would continue this legacy; but I may have been mistaken.

Angela said...

People, please. Your combined intellect makes my head hurt.

Since I know fairly little (and choose to keep it that way) about the "bailout" and what led to it, I can only comment from the outside looking in.

Once again, Canadians are shaking their heads. We have a Conservative government over here, yet it is highly unlikely that such unregulated nonsense would take place in Canada.

This appears to be basically everybody's fault and everybody's problem, so I find it almost funny that taxpayers are squawking about helping to fund the solution. I personally think that Americans are some of the fiscally greediest people I know. I don't blame you as people - that's what you've been brought up to hold dear. Problem is, the people who taught you how to hold your money are now holding yours hostage. Not a nice turn of events.

I've already pulled my non-guaranteed investments out of the market in anticipation of the ripple effect. Good luck to my American friends as you guys plow through this.

Anonymous said...

Heh, I'm posting this weeks later it seems, but once again, I can't leave this to rest.

Go read www.theinternationalforecaster.com and see what mr. Bob Chapman has to say about the ordeal.

What people are failing to realize is that there is a far more sinister and dark purpose behind our "economic crisis". Believe me when I say that there are people who understand exactly what the problem is, and they know what the problem is ecause they're creating it for their own potential benefit.

I don't want to get to conspiratal here but you have to look at history from certain points of view to get it right. And there's been a whole cult following that has dedicated itself to revealing to the average person like you and me what these evil people are up to. Go online and type in New World Order, or Illuminati, and you will get all kinds of websites devoted to unveiling these criminals.

But ignoring all the conspiracy stuff, you might do yourself good to sit down and watch this 3.5 hour documentary on the federal reserve made during the clinton years called "The Money Masters".

http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-515319560256183936

In this video you will find the root cause of our economic crisis. You will also find that this kind of economic crisis has been a matter of history for nearly 2,000 years and has happened to every major civilization since the Roman Empire. And most importantly, you will find that this "crisis" was predicted 13 years ago and that we're facing the biggest financial collapse in world history. The Money Masters are following a proven method of creating chaos...they've done it in the past, and they're doing it now. Just watch. If this doesn't change your world view, then nothing will.

Ever read revelation?

-DJ