According to persons far wiser than I, there are actually elections of consequence today. And somehow, despite the fact that he has been in office only ten months, these elections in New Jersey and Virginia have been billed as a referendum on the entire Obama presidency. Interesting, considering that the New Jersey race is really about how much the people of the swamp hate the highest property taxes in the nation, and that since Richard Nixon in 1974, the party in the White House has never also occupied the governor’s mansion in Virginia. Yes, even Ronald Reagan, the savior himself, failed to keep Virginia out of Democratic hands. I don’t remember Reagan’s legacy being defined ten months into his presidency by races for governor he wasn’t actually involved in, but the political news narrative isn’t required to make sense, is it. Especially when it comes to Obama.
And then there’s the strange case of NY-23. New York’s 23rd Congressional District has sent a Republican representative to Washington since 1856. That is not a type-o. For 153 years, Republicans have controlled that seat in the House. Things looked on track to maintain that perfect record this year, as the local Republican Party nominated Dede Scozzafava to cruise to an easy victory against the token Democratic challenger Bill Owens. But that didn’t sit well with the new conservative rage machine. Angered by her moderate to liberal positions on abortion and same-sex marriage, (despite very conservative positions on, well, everything else), the local Conservative Party re-animated a wax figurine they then named Doug Hoffman, made sure he passed the anti-abortion, anti-gay, anti-government litmus test, and hustled him out to run against Scozzafava. As Hoffman received national media attention and the endorsement of Fox News, everyone wanting to be someone in the Republican Party, from Tim Pawlenty to Mike Huckabee to Sarah Palin to Glenn Beck, stumbled over themselves to endorse the man they labeled “the true conservative” in the race. As typically happens in primaries and off-year elections, those who scream the loudest tend to get the best results. Support for Hoffman among conservatives surged, while support for Scozzafava plummeted, until, less than a week before the election, she dropped out of the race. The following day, Scozzafava, the Republican candidate, fully endorsed her Democratic opponent and began campaigning for him. As a result of all this drama, the reliably conservative NY-23 is now a statistical toss-up between Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman and Democrat Bill Owens.
The case of NY-23 is less about the President than it is about the Republican Party. There is a debate raging inside the party over its identity. For some, the lesson of the 2008 election was that the Republican Party is shrinking, and in order to recapture national prominence, in must grow and become more inclusive. Statistics seem to back up this opinion. Only 20 percent of American voters identify as Republican – the lowest in 26 years – while 35 percent identify as Democrats. (There is an interesting disconnect in the numbers, since far more Americans still identify themselves as ideologically conservative than ideologically liberal, but, one subject at a time.) With Blacks voting 96% Democratic, and a rapidly increasing Latino population trending Democratic by a two to one margin, Republicans are finding It increasingly difficult to maintain national relevance. But there is a significant – and vocal – portion of the Republican Party that feels the reason they were defeated in 2008 was because their candidates simply weren’t pure enough. They have made it their mission to purge from the party, anyone they deem to be insufficiently conservative. Translation; anyone Republican supporting a woman’s right to choose and/or same-sex marriage and/or any tax increase of any kind, should shut up and get the bleep out, because they aren’t welcome anymore. District 23 is a battle of conservative ideology. But I’m not sure the results will translate well to other races in other parts of the country. It’s no more difficult to send an ultra-conservative instead of a moderate conservative to Congress from a white, middle-class district that ALWAYS sends a conservative to Congress. It’s a different ballgame to attempt to repeat that feat in a far more diverse swing district.
Update. As of 10:30 Eastern time, Republicans are victorious in Virginia and New Jersey. Results for NY-23 are not yet in.
Even more recent update. As of Wednesday morning, Democrat Bill Owens becomes the first Democrat since the Ulysses Grant presidency to represent NY-23 in Washington. Ouch.
Last week President Obama signed the defense budget into law, and with it, finally killed production of the F-22 fighter. In his farewell address in 1961, President Eisenhower warned of the evolution of a “military industrial complex,” a self-perpetuating system that will continue to grow, regardless of whether or not it is needed. The F-22 was the textbook example. In the early ‘80’s, the Air Force decided they needed a new generation of fighter aircraft as a deterrent to combat and deter any Soviet aggression. So, the search for a new plane began as a competition between the Lockheed Martin YF-22 concept, and the Northrop/McDonnell Douglas concept YF-23. Eventually, Lockheed won the competition and the F-22 went into production. From the very beginning, the program has been somewhat of a disaster. Even before manufacturing of the aircraft began, the reason for its existence, the Soviet Union, dissolved. But, because Lockheed had spread the manufacturing of the F-22 amongst 38 states, no one in Congress had the political courage to vote against jobs, so production continued. The plane was then plagued with problems, like parts that didn’t fit because they were manufactured in 38 different places. By the summer of 2009, the Air Force was the proud owner of 187 fighters that had never been used in combat, cannot be flown in the rain and cost 2 1/3 times more than they originally contracted for them. For eight years, representatives claiming to value fiscal responsibility above all else had the opportunity to end this waste of money, yet didn’t. Why not? Why did it take a “tax and spend liberal” government to trim a bloated defense budget?
After news of his refusal to marry an interracial couple went national a couple weeks ago, Louisiana Justice of the Peace Keith Bardwell resigned his office, effective today (Tuesday). He offered no explanation with his resignation, but I don’t think an explanation is necessary. In writing about him in my last column I suggested that Justice Bardwell should either perform the mandated duties of his office or find a career that did not conflict with his personal ethics. My congratulations to Bardwell for this flash of integrity, and good luck to him in whatever that new career may be.
Both Ford and General Motors released quarterly earning this week showing an increase in sales. Ford even reported a profit of nearly a billion dollars, both due in part to the success of the Cash for Clunkers program. The Commerce Department also reported a 3.5% increase in the national Gross Domestic Product – the first increase in 2 years, due also in part to the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act, which also has reportedly saved 650,000 jobs since its enactment in March. So much for the stimulus being a failure. Let’s be clear about exactly what our $787 billion was supposed to do. The bill was designed to pick up the economic slack in a severe downturn until the private section could get back on its feet, protecting a number of jobs in the process. At this point, about 30% of stimulus funds have been spent, with the rest to be distributed through 2010. Seems like 3.5% growth and more than half-a-million jobs (not including the multiplier effect) is a decent return on investment, considering the market is still doing fairly well and inflation remains at 0%. Republicans argue that despite the positive economic numbers, unemployment continues to rise; therefore, the stimulus was a failure. Measured against what it was supposed to accomplish, that statement is obviously false. If there is an argument to be made it is that if $787 billion resulted in 3.5% growth and 650,000 jobs with no inflation at 30% completion, then a larger stimulus bill designed to spend more money earlier would have produced better results. They don’t seem to be making that argument.
My NFL Thoughts for Week 8:
The Saints keep finding different ways to win football games. Again, New Orleans still has more than half its schedule left to play, but great teams find ways to win games that by all rights they should lose. New England did it to Baltimore two years ago, and New Orleans has done it to two different teams, two weeks in a row. At this point in time the Saints are every bit as good as the Patriots or the Colts.
Tough win for the Colts this week. But, to paraphrase what I said in the previous paragraph, it doesn’t matter how you win, as long as you win.
Congratulations to the Rams and Titans for notching their first win of the season on Sunday. No small irony that the Rams first – as possibly only – win of the season came against the team that went winless all of last season. The sidebar to the Titans victory is that for the first time in two seasons, former third pick in the draft Vince Young got the opportunity to start a game. True, the game was virtually meaningless, but a start is a start nonetheless. Perhaps this is the beginning of better days for a troubled VY. That leaves only the Buccaneers left without a win. I’m not holding my breath.
I’ve ripped Carolina defensive end Julius Peppers more than once this season for his abysmal play/salary ratio. But over the past three games Peppers has begun working his way out of the doghouse, throwing in an interception return for a touchdown this week against Arizona. If only they could get this quarterback on the same road to recovery.
What the heck happened to the New York Giants?
There was a Terrell Owens sighting in Buffalo this weekend. And me without my popcorn. I had forgotten what he looks like.
Play of the week goes to New York Jets quarterback Mark Sanchez, in a losing effort against the Dolphins at the Meadowlands. With the Jets lined up near the Miami goal line, Sanchez fakes the handoff to his running back and rolls left, right into what might as well have been an empty stadium. Everybody – and I mean EVERYBODY – all 21 other players, the fans and even the referee thought the ball was at the bottom of the pile. It’s too bad that a play that spectacular was wasted on a loss.
In case you were living under a rock, Brett Favre returned to face his old team in Green Bay Sunday afternoon. Unfortunately for the Packers, this game ended just like the last one, with a Minnesota victory. Favre has accomplished what he set out to do, prove to the team that let him walk away that he can still play the game at the top tier of his profession. But in doing so I think he forever altered the way Wisconsin feel about him and his legacy. I hope it was worth it.
My Superbowl Picks for Week 8: New Orleans Saints vs. Indianapolis Colts.
If you've seen the movie "Office Space," this is the greatest thing you've seen since.
Finally, a football story with non-football application. Kansas City Chiefs running back and long time pain in the butt Larry Johnson was suspended this week for comments he made during a post-game interview. On several occasions, Johnson used gay slurs in reference to various individuals and other things, and then abruptly ended the interview. This, in addition to Johnson ripping his coach on Twitter pushed Chiefs management to decide to discipline Johnson, and I can’t say I blame them. Have we really not yet reached the point were we understand that it is not acceptable to degrade people in public? Yes, this is America. You can think whatever you want. For the most part, you can say whatever you want. But just because you CAN do something, doesn’t mean you SHOULD. Is it really so difficult to run your words past your brain before they exit your mouth? Especially for someone who talks to cameras after games every week?
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